The Predictive SOP is the operational heart of CI-EWS. Every district-disease pair is classified into a tier each month. Pre-authorised actions follow automatically -- no meeting required, no approval delay.

01Overview

12 district-disease pairs require attention

Four-tier escalation framework with pre-authorised actions. Click any district on the map for full detail.

Normal
23
Pre-Watch
1
Watch
0
Warning
10
Alert
1
02Map

Alert tier map

Districts colored by highest alert tier. Click to see all diseases for that district.

AlertWarningWatchPre-WatchNormal
ALERT DETAIL
Bangui Ii
Malaria
Alert
Trigger Reason

Cases (22179) exceed P95 (19775) and doubled from 10967

Epi
Pre-Authorised Actions
  • Activate incident management
  • Start 7-1-7 clock
  • Deploy rapid response team
Tier Timeline (52mo)
All Diseases in Bangui Ii
MalariaAlert
03Decisions

6 districts require action this month

Every field below is real: baseline comparison, population, climate signal, RDT supply, and next-month forecast.

1
Respond to Malaria in Bangui Ii
Cases (22179) exceed P95 (19775) and doubled from 10967
Alert
Cases vs P7522.2K +118%
Trend 13mo elevated
Population368.4K
RDT supply4.3w
Next month7.5K
Activate incident managementStart 7-1-7 clockDeploy rapid response team
2
Respond to Malaria in Bangui I
Cases (14832) exceed P95 (14463)
Warning
Cases vs P7514.8K +14%
Trend 8mo elevated
Population180.4K
RDT supply2w
Next month5.4K
PHEOC notificationPre-position antimalarials & RDTsVector control
3
Respond to Malaria in Bimbo
Cases (12179) exceed P95 (11858)
Warning
Cases vs P7512.2K +15%
Trend this month
Population362.9K
RDT supply1w
Next month8.4K
PHEOC notificationPre-position antimalarials & RDTsVector control
4
Respond to Malaria in Kemo
Cases (10841) exceed P95 (10410)
Warning
Cases vs P7510.8K +25%
Trend 8mo elevated
Population202.0K
RDT supply16w
Next month6.3K
PHEOC notificationPre-position antimalarials & RDTsVector control
5
Respond to Malaria in Bangassou
Cases (7523) exceed P95 (7171)
Warning
Cases vs P757.5K +31%
Trend 7mo elevated
Population172.1K
RDT supply15.4w
Next month3.7K
PHEOC notificationPre-position antimalarials & RDTsVector control
6
Respond to Malaria in Baboua-Abba
Cases (6906) exceed P95 (6784)
Warning
Cases vs P756.9K +10%
Trend this month
Population116.5K
RDT supply3.4w
Next month4.8K
PHEOC notificationPre-position antimalarials & RDTsVector control
04Momentum

Disease momentum

Alert count per disease across all 35 districts this month.

Malaria
12
above threshold
Measles
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Meningitis
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Mpox
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Yellow Fever
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Pertussis
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AFP
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-38%national malaria, month-on-month
8 districts rising
13 districts falling
Biggest movers
Bangassou-152,477
Bangui Ii+11.2K
Mbaiki-4,255
05Escalations

Recent tier transitions

Districts that recently escalated to Watch or higher. Sorted by recency and severity.

Escalation Feed

Oct 2025–Dec 2025
Dec 2025WarningAlertBangui Ii22.2K cases
Dec 2025NormalWarningBegoua5.4K cases
Dec 2025NormalWarningBimbo12.2K cases
Dec 2025NormalWarningBozoum-Bossemptele6.7K cases
Dec 2025NormalWarningKouango-Grimari4.9K cases
Dec 2025NormalWarningBaboua-Abba6.9K cases
Dec 2025NormalPre-WatchMobaye-Zangba4.0K cases
Nov 2025Pre-WatchWarningMbaiki7.3K cases
06Triggers

Trigger breakdown

What proportion of elevated tiers are driven by climate signals vs epidemiological signals. Click a card for the district list.

07Forecast Watch

0 districts forecast to cross P95 next month

Not yet at Warning/Alert today — but the deployed model expects them to get there next month.

No districts currently forecast to cross P95 next month.
Can the system absorb itSupply Chain -- Beds, drugs, diagnostic kits, and workforce against what the forecast predicts.