Can the system keep testing and treating through a surge? This page reads real malaria commodity data from the CAR health warehouse — RDT stock, stock-outs, and antimalarials dispensed — and flags where supply can't meet the burden. Dec 2025.
01Verdict
Can supply absorb the next surge?
7 districts are stocking out on RDTs during an active surge.
National RDT stockpile covers 11.9 weeks at the current consumption rate. Beds / ORS / antibiotics await eLMIS integration.
836
204.8K
02Act Now
Pre-position RDTs where supply meets surge
Districts running low on RDTs or stocking out during high transmission — ranked so the top of the list is what to do first.
1
Bambari
critical priority
19.9K RDTs · 7.4w
161d stock-out
12.7K cases
299.4K population
Next month: 12.8K cases
Pre-position RDTs now
2
Haute-Kotto
critical priority
35.6K RDTs · 27.2w
112d stock-out
5.5K cases
145.8K population
Next month: 4.5K cases
Pre-position RDTs now
3
Paoua
critical priority
8.6K RDTs · 3.8w
84d stock-out
10.4K cases
333.7K population
Next month: 9.5K cases
Pre-position RDTs now
4
Bouar -Baoro
critical priority
10.4K RDTs · 5.2w
74d stock-out
8.8K cases
262.8K population
Next month: 6.1K cases
Pre-position RDTs now
5
Kembe-Satema
critical priority
36.3K RDTs · 25.4w
62d stock-out
6.7K cases
88.1K population
Next month: 6.3K cases
Pre-position RDTs now
6
Mobaye-Zangba
critical priority
20.9K RDTs · 14.6w
62d stock-out
4.0K cases
140.3K population
Next month: 5.8K cases
Pre-position RDTs now
03Evidence
Why
The commodity numbers and district map behind the verdict above.
Commodity status
Malaria RDTs11.9w supply
563.7K
est. on hand nationally
Consumed: ~204.8K11.9 weeks
Antimalarials (ACT/AL)
1.1M
courses dispensed this month
ORS Sachets
—
awaiting eLMIS integration
Antibiotics
—
awaiting eLMIS integration
District RDT supply map
Reporting Completeness
>90% 80-90% <80%
Worst RDT stock-outs
STOCK-OUT DAYS1Bambari
161d
2Haute-Kotto
112d
3Paoua
84d
4Bouar -Baoro
74d
5Kembe-Satema
62d
6Mobaye-Zangba
62d
7Bangui I
61d
8Bocaranga-Koui
37d
9Berberati
33d
10Sangha-Mbaere
32d
11Bangassou
30d
12Nanga-Boguila
17d
13Baboua-Abba
15d
14Mbaiki
12d
15Bimbo
11d
04Look Ahead
What a demand-forecasting model would show
Real forecast + real stock in, illustrative model logic out — this section previews a planned model, not a shipped one.
ILLUSTRATIVE MODEL PREVIEW
Next month's per-district case forecast and today's RDT/ACT-AL stock are real. The step in between — converting forecasted cases into commodity demand — uses a flat national ratio as a stand-in for the real model CI-EWS plans to build. Do not use these gap numbers for procurement decisions yet.
Malaria RDTs — national
real On hand today563.7K
real Forecasted cases, next month216.0K
illustrative Projected RDT demand185.3K
Illustrative gap+378.5K
Antimalarials (ACT/AL) — national
real Dispensed this month1.1M
real Forecasted cases, next month216.0K
illustrative Projected ACT/AL need997.9K
Illustrative gap+105.3K
Carnot-Gadzilargest illustrative RDT deficit
Next month (real)16.1K cases
RDT on hand (real)4.5K
Projected RDT need (illustrative)13.8K
RDT gap (illustrative)-9,285
ACT/AL dispensed (real)65.3K
ACT/AL gap (illustrative)-9,072
Bangui Iiiworked example
Next month (real)10.7K cases
RDT on hand (real)22
Projected RDT need (illustrative)9.2K
RDT gap (illustrative)-9,147
ACT/AL dispensed (real)14
ACT/AL gap (illustrative)-49,374
05Reference
Full district commodity breakdown
Every district's RDT and antimalarial numbers side by side, for looking up a specific district.